Has recession started?

[drivetowin]

I think there is a big danger that led by the mass media we all talk our way into a recession - I couldn't quite believe BBC News 24 a couple of days ago when it flashed up 'BREAKING NEWS - RECESSION CRISIS' - just as it would if there had been a plane crash or some other instantaneous event - silly scaremongering imho.

As far as the affiliate space goes - we should all be making more of the fact that we are one of the most measurable forms of marketing (though don't confuse that with most cost effective, the two are not necessarily the same) - but yes, most measurable for sure. With my ear to the agency and network ground, the word from all of the key agencies and networks is that the current pipeline of merchants is very healthy indeed, so while the affiliate space may be affected, I personally do not expect to see any slowdown in affiliate revenues this side of the new year.

[Azam.net]

Originally Posted by cookie_monsta The housing market shouldn't fall any steeper ( although will probably steadily for a good while ) as demand is strong which will hold it at a 'good' level.

You're a brave man for saying that Mike

Agree with everyone else we're talking ourselves into a recession, but it's no difference to talking ourselves into a boom, which is what we were doing for the last 10+ years. There's no way the Average Joe had the money to afford all those luxuries, but he led himself to believe that buying a pair of trainers for £120 was within his means and a perfectly reasonable thing to do.

Despite all the hype in this country, it's time people realised it has been in a slow, but steady relative decline since the Days of Empire, and the only reason people have been able to spend £50 a month on coffee from trendy cafes, is because they've been spending other people's money.

Surely nobody believed Gordon Brown when he exclaimed he'd end the cycle of boom and bust that has been part of the British economy for decades. I was preparing our business to profit from a recessionary climate and buying recession-focused domain names as far back as 2001; my only amazement is it's taken so long for the chicken to come home to roost.

It's going to get nasty, real nasty.

[aotagain]

Concentrating on high end goods is a good idea as someone said earlier.

What's interesting and a little disturbing is that many households have actually had increasing real total income in the last 20 years. BUT, individual real incomes for the majority of people have not moved. The increase in spending power has been because 2 people in the household have been working to keep up with the Jones's. The minimum wage was supposed to be a great event for socialism, but Minimum is what it turned out to be.

Meanwhile 1% own 6% of the wealth and 50% own 6% or something like that.

We ain't going to get Robin Hood and 60% tax for the rich anytime soon, because of course there would be a flood of highly qualified, valuable people leaving the country wouldn't there ? The directors that b....r a company and get a £300,000 pay off, the footballers that earn £20,000 a week, the consultants that advise the NHS to buy useless IT systems and constantly change its structure... Oh, what, they've already got offshore tax havens ?

We'd be in a terrible state if they left wouldn't we, so we mustn't try to tax them more in case they desert us

Human resources tell the majority that we don't just go to work for money, we go to work for other things as well, so we get nice canteens, special bank accounts, vouchers, feel-good get-togethers.... Funny how that argument doesn't seem to apply to overpaid boards of directors isn't it ? Surely at their level the job satisfaction must far outweigh pure monetary reward, so losing a bit more to tax shouldn't bother them.

At least that 1% will still be spending come what may, so that's where I'll be aiming. Unfortunately Harrods has closed its program, so that's a chunk out of the cunning plan straight away :-(

[Stellar]

What I found interesting about the UK media is that they all treat the idea of a recession as something that is close to a natural disaster. It is as if recessions should never happen and when they do, the consequences will be so dire that it warrants all this panic talk.

But the simple fact of economics is that economies always go through cycles. Boom and bust is a fact of economic life and part of the normal economic cycle. The fact that the UK has had a prolonged boom largely based on very high levels of debts (personal and Govt) means that the inevitable bust will be longer and sharper. But it doesn't change the fact that it would always happen.

In NZ (my home land), recessions are relatively common. The boom and bust cycle appears to be shorter then in bigger economies like the UK and USA. The effects on people can be sevre. When I left uni in 96, NZ was in the middle of a hard recession and that made it very difficult for me to get a decent job.

However, there is always light at the end of the tunnel and another boom will come again. It may take a few years, but that is just a fact of life and we just have to deal with it.

[Sticky-Jason]

If the media were not so intent on their self fulfilling prophecies’ we would not be having this conversation now. For years the tabloids have been banging on about the immanent doom of the economy and how house prices are going to crash, but for the past few years everything has maintained a status quo. Now we are seeing dip in house prices the media are all over the band wagon and if things continue the way they are we are we will see certain tabloid headlines reading “House Prices Crash , Economy in turmoil, We told you here first - Here is our front page from April 2001- We told you it would happen!!!!”

I think this bad weather is making me cranky and cynical!

[lurker]

Strictly speaking recession = two successive quarters of negative growth,
so we're not there yet.

Looks likely this winter though.......

[andrewshipway]

I suppose, really, the economy cannot possibly just keep growing and growing. So even if it plateaued , or went into negative slightly, would it really make much difference?

Anyway, we all know the only news the media like is bad news, and if its not bad, they place a bad spin on it - If in doubt, make it up, and make it as shocking as possible to sell papers.

[Chris Tradgett]

Hi,

Good points here, but as Keith said there is still lots of activity in this channel. Remember the massive ongoing growth relative to other marketing channels over recent years, seeing online bypassing radio and other channels. I'm confident that even if the overall economic graph is a downhill slope, affiliate marketing's growth will still be growth overall though the scale of growth may be less than last year.

Performance channels in this kind of market will very much come into their own as it is a little or no risk option for merchants, and affiliates the most cost-effective of all.

Couple this with the fact that in a recession the biggest brands usually increase their spending, to gain market share from those with less deep pockets - and my guess is that we will see this channel continue to buck the trend overall, despite some sectors slowing down for a while.

Lets not bow to the cup-half-empty types in the old media and prove them all wrong!

cheers

[channel5]

Recession can be a time of immense opportunity if you are ready for it and have some liquidity available to exploit opportunities.. you tend to have fewer competitors as people go bust and less enter the market

[kcheung]

Will little experience of economics, i think we are already in recession...simply by the fact, people are spending less, my key indicator would be the restaurant sector on a Saturday night, (dad being a Gordon Ramsey-esq restaurateur), if its quieter week on week (accross a skew of restaurants targeting different markets) then people are spending less, which to me means, they are getting more concerned about their cash flow, which means their not spending, and therefore, we're in recession.

It might be simplistic, but lets face it, at a hazard of a guess, you can tell, not as much money is going around and the unions are starting to bark about pay raises, property prices arn't as good as they used to be, when you look at a graph and all the lines point downwards, you'd be a fool not to think somethings wrong, the question now is, how far will it drop, its not a case of if we are or aren't in recession, but, how bad is it going to get and how long for?