Has recession started?

[hirschnathan]

Looking at my stats today across all networks only a single measily sale.

I think people are cutting back on all extra expenses. If only primark would have a website (and on a network)
I am not suprised:
Next year your bills will be a follows:
Probally about £1.50 a litre of diesel
£400 for your road tax
ABout £1400 for your gas
£500 electricity
Council tax, well that depends, normally about double inflation about £1400 (if they get more they will)
Food up 30%

And the list goes on

And if you need cash:
If you sell your house it would have gone down by about 20%
Your car will be a few grand less, because you have a higher tax bracket?

Doom and gloom? Yes

[aotagain]

Being British, we'll probably talk ourselves into one even if there shouldn't be one.

Everyone seems to be forgetting that so far, there have not been widespread redundancies, there have not been huge numbers of house repossessions. Just prices rising a bit too much for everyone's liking and lots of fallout from the financial markets via journalists doom and gloom stuff. Lets face it, if the city slickers are suffering, they wouldn't want everyday folk to carry on as normal would they ?

Big difference between any downturn now and at the back end of the 80's:

Then, very few people had been in work for 10 years creaming it in, while also wathcing their properties grow in value so much that they could afford a second home and also having inflation at 2-3%. The property boom was sudden. This one has been going on for years.

Inflation was at a silly level, people hadn't accumulated large amounts of equity, employment wasn't anything like as good as it is now and as soon as any redundancies started, the house repossessions started.

(PS I hope that if we escape recession it doesn't mean New Labour gets rescued at the next election "look we steered the country through another dodgy time so vote us in again to implement Tory policies, rather than the Tories - they weren't very good at it")

[Stuart]

Originally Posted by hirschnathan Looking at my stats today across all networks only a single measily sale.

So how many do you normally get on average? Might just be a slow day.

[glitch]

Does anybody know for sure what is going to happen next?

It strikes me that a lot of the apparent economic boom we have been having over recent years has been kept going by individual debt. Now inflation and pressure on incomes is starting to bite, millions of people do not have any spare cash, and so they are less willing to spend money. This slowdown in the economy is likely to cause a sharp rise in umemployent, and by next year we could be in serious trouble.

Let's hope the worst doesn't happen, but can anybody be confident at the moment. The Stock Market is yet another indcator that we are in very jittery times, and I don't see anybody saying things will get better before Christmas.

[justhomdotcom]

Has the recession started???
I'll put this to you.
If I can sell £10,000 worth of underwear in under 8 hours I really don't think the recession has started yet - it's not like undies are luxury items and I would of though unecessary items would be the first thing to go.

[tomj]

Av adult personal debt in UK £30k
Av adult savings £300

Earnings to debt ratio back 1990 ish 75%
Earnings to debt ratio now aprox 160%

Mass lay offs have started in the building trade.....next will be service sector as people really stop spending.

redundancies are happening in the city altho in smaller groups to avoid regulatory reporting of job cuts.

Banking losses as a result of the credit crunch are expected to top $1.6Trillion .....up from $800billion a few months back as the scale of whats upon us globally is realised.

We are exiting the denial stage of the start of this recession and entering the delusional stage, the momentum will continue to build. I think there is a general mis understanding of the definition of a recession and when it becomes fact for everyone.

Anyone with a cynical mindset who doesnt have their head burried in sand at this moment as to whats about to happen should read News Blog - HousePriceCrash.co.uk its a touch morbid but worth the time

People are still spending ...sure. They still have credit limits not max'd out lol.....wait till people cant borrow anymore as mainstream avenues of credit become unavailable.

Dont say it wont happen. Look at the mortgages. Look at first plus. When will the credit card companies start withdrawing balance transfers?.....Hmmmm

Question should not be Has recession started?.....question should be how will I make money from a recession?!

[channel5]

Originally Posted by glitch It strikes me that a lot of the apparent economic boom we have been having over recent years has been kept going by individual debt. Now inflation and pressure on incomes is starting to bite, millions of people do not have any spare cash, and so they are less willing to spend money. This slowdown in the economy is likely to cause a sharp rise in umemployent, and by next year we could be in serious trouble.

Bingo.. it's not the level of unemployment that's the problem (like it was in the 80's) it's the level of personal debt, debt can't keep on being doled out, it has to be repaid.. but the boom in growth and employment was fuelled by debt..

so while the debt gets repaid there will be a contraction in personal spending which will lead to a recession in any area that depends on consumer spending.. especially on non-essentials..

couple this with the increase in the cost of fuel and food that has coincided with the debt contraction and you will find this magnifies the effects.

And on top of this houseprices were left to reach obscene levels for no really apparent reason.. which is going to cause immense pain to anyone who bought a house in the last 5 or 6 years (maybe even more).

It's going to be tough out there for the next 3 to 5 years.

[tomj]

It took 12 years for property values to go from their peak in 1990 1991 or whatever it was back to that break even point again.

That makes 2014 a likely bottom of market/turning point a real possibility

[hhackwell]

In terms of AM I've read plenty of posts with people speculating on which sectors will be hit hardest.

I'm sure I read somewhere that the sales of higher end goods might remain steady as people with that much money won't be hit hard by a recession. What do people think about that???

Perhaps we should all rush out and start promoting really expensive and totally unnecessary items

If merchants start stopping or cutting back on their affiliate schemes I think they'd be totally daft. What other type of advertising budget is only spent when a sale is achieved??? If anything, I think they should be cutting back on TV/magazine advertising and pushing more money into the affiliate side.

Just my 10 pence worth

[Shane]

hmmm not sure we are in a recession .. more the case that we are now having to try and live within our means for once where for the last decade most people have been spending far more cash per year than they can repay, the average personal credit card debt would take many years of spare income to repay.

Having just spent a weekend in Barcelona, apart from the superb sunshine (and rolex robbers ) the other main thing that caught my eye was a cash machine every 100 yards, in fact in virtually every european city I've been in there are loads of cash machines on every main street.

In most uk cities you need to ask for directions to them, the UK is not a cash culture it's a pay on plastic culture... and now that cycle has suddenly had an enforced stop due to the worry over the tenuous situation banks have left themselves in.

It's laughable how the "if" game has caused all this hassle, someone somewhere said "if" bank x's lenders can't repay then bank x will go under... that's spread and suddenly banks are in trouble even though payments were being made and everything was running smoothly..

It's a bit like being stood in a crowded nightclub and someone shouting "if" there was a fire we'd all struggle to get out.. so everyone panics and runs for the doors at that point.. it's a dumb situation that's going to get talked into a real situation, recession ahoy the press seemed intent on making it so, if people of influence used a positive outlook it could be averted IMO

hey ho.. in great times of change there's always the oppotuinity to profit

[andrewshipway]

"In most uk cities you need to ask for directions to them"

I don't know that I would agree with you on that point. I would say there are plenty of free cash machines around!! and even more of the ones that charge you £1.50 odd to take your money out. But the whole credit card culture has gotten out of control.

In response to one of the other posts, £10k worth of undies in 8 hours is madness! Are they just mens undies too!???