I think there are so many things that can happen that you'd be hard pressed to accurately predict the future.
I've seen a fair few merchants closing their programs. Some close because they don't make enough money to run a business, some close because they feel they don't need affiliates, some close because they've learnt the secrets of PPC, some close because they're making technical changes which should take an hour but drift off and result in loss of affiliate faith etc.
PPC works when sites sell.
Affiliate programs are successful when sites sell.
If people stop spending as much - or the high street fights back - then PPC gets squeezed - there'll be less reward.
If people spend more than the whole affiliate thing can grow and expand alongside the PPC but there is a real risk that affiliates could be squeezed out of the process.
You only have to look at how many agencies and intermediaries there are now to see that unless overall spend is increased then cash is spread out over a wider base and thus someone loses out.
Is content king anymore? Google's made efforts to try and get good quality PPC pages haven't they? Is that the new content?
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